Could Winning a House Seat Cost Democrats an Electoral Vote?

Welcome to Radio Free America, Aaron Kleinman’s take on stories that matter in state politics but aren't getting enough attention. 

Candidate filing closed in Nebraska last week, which means we now know what choices voters will have in the primary for the state’s must-win 2nd Congressional District. Based on fundraising data compiled by The Downballot, the frontrunners for the nomination are state Sen. John Cavanaugh, Douglas County Clerk Crystal Rhoades, former VA Deputy Secretary Kishla Atkins and ex-congressional aide James Leuschen. It’s hard to tell which one would be most likely to win the seat in 2026, but only one of them, Cavanaugh, could risk losing Democrats a critical electoral vote.

I know you don’t want to, but let’s think back to 2024. Back then, there was a concerted effort to get Nebraska to change its method of allocating electoral votes. Republicans suddenly started caring because if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania but lost North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, then the single electoral vote that goes to the winner of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District would have been decisive.

The effort failed because a single Republican state senator refused to go along with it, as WOWT reported in the video above. The effort failed again last year because two more Republican state senators defected. However, if Republicans can strengthen their legislative supermajority, they can attempt to change the process yet again heading into 2028. The chamber’s nonpartisan elections can be unpredictable, so it’s feasible that lawmakers trying to change the rules could improve their standing, even if 2026 is a good Democratic year.

So if Cavanaugh wins a congressional election, Republicans could win another seat in the Legislature. That’s because if he resigns his state position to take his seat in Congress at any point after May 1 this year, then the governor would appoint the state senator who’d take his place through January 2029. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen’s term runs past the date that Cavanaugh would be sworn into Congress, which means a Republican could represent his district for the period leading into the 2028 election.

In Atkins, Leuschen and Rhoades, Sen. Cavanaugh has three opponents who seem like they’d be capable standard bearers, including one who has already won a countywide election in the county that makes up 85% of the population of the district. His argument appears to be that his campaign would lead to wins up and down the ballot, but I’m unfamiliar with any case study where a uniquely strong congressional candidate has had a meaningful impact on state legislative outcomes, or any proof that Cavanaugh would be a uniquely strong nominee.

In two months, Nebraska Democrats will choose who they want to be their standard bearer in a congressional election. That means Cavanaugh has two months to make his case. Or, if he really wants to back up his talk against people like me, who he says have a “loser mentality,” he could resign his legislative seat before May 1 so there is no risk in supporting him. If his victory is that assured, what’s the harm? Even if he loses the primary, he could run for the state legislative seat again when it comes up in 2028.

But for now, it’s up to the people of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Reading this in a forward? Click below to get the newsletter directly in your inbox.

They got a Twin Peaks title card generator now. Thanks to the good folks at “Welcome to Twin Peaks,” you can imagine the tender swells of an Angelo Baldalamenti composition rending your heart as you read this newsletter. If you never got into the show (and I’ll admit that I skipped big chunks of season two), I still think you should check out the “Gotta Light?” episode from the third season, as it’s the most important episode of television this century. If you understand that, you understand all of postwar American culture.

When you’re in the political world, you get told to read a lot of nonfiction books that are “important,” even though the only matter of importance they serve is holding up an uneven table. They’re so wrapped up in their own self-righteousness and devoid of subtext that you’d be better off reading 100,000 posts. So if you want an important book, more often than not, you should look to fiction, where you have works like Claudia Piñeiro’s Elena Knows. It’ll get you thinking more deeply about bodily autonomy than all sorts of bestsellers that got quickly forgotten. Check it out.

There was no real consensus on which electric car I should get, though the Ioniq 5 and Mustang Mach-E both got a lot of votes. Maybe if I buy enough WTI futures, I’ll be able to afford one before the war with Iran is over!

Anyway, that snow that previously smothered my current car is very much gone, leaving vast seas of detritus in its wake. That means it’s shorts weather, and I’m in the market for some new pairs of them. What are some good brands that won’t wear out in the seat too quickly (as a rough and tumble knowledge worker I need good stitchwork to keep up with all the sitting that I do)? Hit reply and tell me what you think.

Like my newsletter? Click the button below to forward it to a friend.